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Germany’s March Data Send Mixed Signal: Orders Jump as Output Falls, U.S. Sales Slump

Precautionary stockpiling points to a fragile rebound.

Overview

  • Destatis reported Friday that March exports rose 0.5% while imports jumped 5.1%, cutting the seasonally adjusted trade surplus to €14.3 billion.
  • Sales to the United States fell 7.9% from February and 21.4% from a year earlier, the sharpest annual drop since June 2020, even as exports to EU partners rose 3.4%.
  • Industrial output declined 0.7% in March, with machinery and energy production lower, as the economy ministry linked the setback to Iran-war price shocks and growing supply strains.
  • New industrial orders jumped 5.0% in March in what business groups and the ministry said was partly precautionary buying, with standout gains in electrical equipment, electronics, and machinery.
  • Analysts cut 2026 growth expectations toward roughly 0.4–0.5%, pointing to higher energy and transport costs, softer demand outside Europe, and rising U.S. tariff risks that could squeeze margins and delay investment.