Overview
- The Federal Office for Social Security now forecasts a 2026 shortfall in the statutory long-term care insurance (Pflegeversicherung) of €4.0–4.5 billion and warns the Ausgleichsfonds could run short of liquidity as early as June.
- Health Minister Nina Warken’s Pflegeneuordnungsgesetz (PNOG) has been sent toward inter-ministerial review and may be discussed by cabinet in June, but parliamentary debate before the summer recess is considered unlikely.
- Reported short-term options include raising the surcharge on childless members by 0.1 percentage point—estimated to yield about €400 million—and industry warnings that contribution increases up to 0.2 percentage points may be needed.
- Officials warn the funding gap widens sharply after 2026, with projected shortfalls of €7.6 billion in 2027 and rising to €17.4 billion by 2030, prompting debate over structural fixes such as taxing non-wage income, integrating private mandatory care insurance, or federal transfers.
- The number of people entitled to benefits has risen quickly, driving spending above revenue and risking payment shortfalls for care providers and beneficiaries; if the Ausgleichsfonds runs dry the federal government would likely have to provide loans, transfers, or guarantees, making June cabinet choices critical.