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Germany’s Heating Shift Accelerates as New Analysis Finds Heat Pumps the Sensible Choice

Subsidies determine affordability for households facing high upfront costs.

Overview

  • Dr.-Ing. Marek Miara’s Heat Pumps Watch assessment finds the economically optimal choice is now typically the most climate‑friendly one, with heat pumps ranking highest across key criteria.
  • Industry figures show that in 2025 more heat pumps were sold than gas boilers in Germany, marking a structural turn in the market.
  • An example calculation by Vamo CEO Jan Ossenbrink indicates a common gas‑to‑heat‑pump conversion can amortize in about seven years and eleven months assuming roughly €32,000 upfront cost and a 55% subsidy.
  • Heat pumps’ efficiency of about 3–5 kWh of heat per 1 kWh of electricity underpins lower running costs, which improve further with dedicated electricity tariffs or on‑site solar power.
  • Environment Minister Carsten Schneider says heat pumps pay off over time yet low‑ and middle‑income owners need subsidies, as deployment still faces a shortage of experienced installers and inconsistent local advice.