Overview
- The economy ministry, which cut its 2026 and 2027 outlooks on Wednesday, now projects 0.5% growth next year and 0.9% the year after, citing the Iran war’s energy shock.
- An IMK indicator on Thursday put the chance of a second‑quarter recession at 33.5%, up from 11.6% in early March due to weaker markets, pricier energy and supply risks.
- Business mood darkened on Friday, with the Ifo climate index down to 84.4 and the ZEW sentiment gauge at minus 17.2 for April.
- Government projections show inflation drifting back toward about 3%, which has traders expecting the European Central Bank to raise rates this year.
- Berlin approved a two‑month fuel tax break worth about €1.6 billion to ease pump prices, while industry groups press for reforms to cut red tape and lower business costs.