Overview
- Nationwide, 14.2% of under‑threes with stated need lack a place, with shortages at 15.6% in the West versus 7.3% in the East.
- State specifics include about 85,000 missing places in North Rhine-Westphalia, roughly 41,100 in Baden-Württemberg, around 4,700 in Hamburg, and about 4,400 in Saarland.
- The estimate compares a federal survey of parental demand with Statistisches Bundesamt counts of children in institutional care.
- Since the 2023 high of 857,000, the number of children in institutional care has fallen by roughly 56,000, which the IW links mainly to fewer births.
- The IW highlights sharp demographic decline in eastern states and projects capacity reductions there, recommending facilities be preserved for possible reconversion and calling for quality improvements.