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Germany Plans to Scrap Solar Feed-In Tariffs for New Systems as Study Warns of Rooftop PV Hit

A new Fraunhofer ISE study warns that mandatory direct marketing under planned CfDs would sharply weaken returns for small rooftop systems.

Overview

  • Ministers have signaled a shift from fixed EEG payments to difference contracts that require selling power via third-party marketers, with an EEG draft expected in the coming weeks.
  • EU state-aid approval for the current scheme expires at the end of 2026, creating a deadline for a replacement even as the exact start date for the new model remains unsettled.
  • Fraunhofer ISE finds small systems up to 30 kWp would need about 15% higher self-consumption to match current returns, with direct-marketing fees potentially absorbing up to roughly 69% of revenues over 20 years.
  • The proposed price-corridor model would pay producers when market prices fall below the agreed band and require payments back when prices exceed it, shifting market-price risk to small owners.
  • Researchers and EWS urge preparatory steps such as a faster smart-meter rollout, wider dynamic tariffs, and support for direct marketing to protect citizen energy projects that supply about one third of Germany’s PV output, while existing installations keep 20-year terms.