Overview
- Preliminary Destatis data show consumer prices up 2.4% year over year in September and 0.2% month over month, marking 2025’s peak so far.
- Services rose 3.4% and food 2.1% from a year earlier, while energy fell 0.7%, reducing but no longer strongly offsetting overall price growth.
- Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.8%, underscoring persistent underlying pressures.
- Euro area inflation is estimated at 2.2% for September, reinforcing expectations of a cautious, data-dependent ECB after recent rate-cut pauses.
- Household gas and electricity were cheaper in early 2025 than late 2024 yet remain well above pre-war levels (gas about +77.6% vs 2H 2021; electricity about +21.4%).