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German Manufacturing Orders Rebound in May on Few Large Vehicle Contracts

The uptick offers a tentative sign of improvement because several megadeals drove most of the gain, leaving the recovery fragile with high costs, skills shortages, Middle East risks

Overview

  • Destatis data released Monday show real manufacturing orders rose 1.9% month‑on‑month in May and real turnover climbed 1.8%, with April’s earlier estimate revised from −3.8% to −3.2%.
  • The headline rise was concentrated in 'other vehicle construction'—aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles—where new orders jumped about 85% after several very large contracts, and the series excluding those megadeals still rose 1.0%.
  • Recovery across sectors was uneven: machinery orders increased by 3.7% and electrical equipment by 5.7%, while the auto industry fell 3.8% and producers of electronic and optical goods dropped 7.8%.
  • Foreign demand shifted toward the eurozone, with eurozone orders up 11.2% while orders from non‑euro countries fell 3.2%; domestic orders edged up 1.3%, underlining a mixed export picture that affects supply chains and suppliers differently.
  • Economists and industry groups welcomed the surprise rise but warned the improvement is volatile because large single contracts distort monthly data, structural problems persist, the industry carries a multi‑month order backlog, and investors will watch coming production and earnings reports for evidence of a broad recovery.