Overview
- Germany’s BND estimates Russia’s true 2025 federal deficit at about 2.36 trillion rubles above the official figure, roughly 3.6% of GDP, and it corrected an earlier percentage misstatement after inquiry.
- The BND accuses the Kremlin of dressing up economic data to mask war costs, saying nearly all sectors are weakening as resources are steered to the military at the expense of civilian needs.
- Energy income is singled out as deteriorating, with Russian oil sold at steep discounts, reduced purchases by India, and extraterritorial U.S. sanctions depressing oil and LNG revenues.
- German security sources report increased tapping of the National Wealth Fund and liquid reserves—mainly renminbi and about 155 tonnes of gold—while some economists question the BND’s deficit uplift and point to greater domestic borrowing.
- Sanctions enforcement has tightened, including a recent Belgian-French seizure of a suspected shadow‑fleet tanker, yet German and Finnish assessments say financial strain alone is unlikely to force a near‑term end to the war.