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German Industrial Orders Jump 7.8% in December on State-Led Mega-Deals

A burst of state procurement drove the jump, pointing to a fragile recovery that depends on policy support.

Overview

  • Official data show the strongest monthly gain in two years, with December orders up 7.8% and forecasters caught off guard after expecting a decline.
  • Excluding very large contracts, orders rose about 0.9% month on month, while the fourth quarter posted a robust three‑month increase of roughly 9.5%.
  • Domestic demand climbed 10.7% and orders from outside the euro area rose 9.7%, as euro‑area bookings edged slightly lower.
  • Sector results diverged: metal products surged 30.2% and machinery 11.5%, while automotive orders fell 6.3% and other vehicle orders dropped from November’s high.
  • The Economy Ministry cited big domestic public procurements linked to Bundeswehr modernization and infrastructure/climate projects, and economists welcomed tentative signs of a turnaround while urging reforms to sustain momentum.