Overview
- Germany’s airport association (ADV) warns of broad summer cancellations, saying a worst case could cut capacity by 10 percent and affect up to 20 million travelers, with low‑cost routes and smaller holiday destinations most at risk.
- Airlines have already pulled flights this week after fuel prices doubled since February, with Cirium counting about 13,000 May cancellations worldwide and Lufthansa removing roughly 20,000 short‑haul services from its summer plan.
- Supply signals diverge: Lufthansa says fuel at its hubs is secured through mid‑June, Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary warns selective cuts could start if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut into early June, and IAG (British Airways) says it sees no near‑term availability gap but much higher costs.
- The European Commission reiterates that high fuel prices do not waive EU compensation rights for cancellations, while a verified fuel shortage can be treated as an extraordinary circumstance; regulators also flagged temporary use of U.S. Jet A as a technical fallback.
- Second‑order strains are building as Argus Media reports emerging shortages of Group II/III base oils used for motor oils, which could curb car production and disrupt buses and trucks within months, while Germany explores new supply channels including an Israeli offer of kerosene and gas.