Overview
- Europe’s Dutch TTF futures jumped about 67% last week and opened up roughly 30% on Monday before easing, as Brent crossed $100 a barrel.
- QatarEnergy halted LNG production at Ras Laffan and issued force majeure, while insurer withdrawals and security threats have curtailed transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Roughly 20% of global LNG passes through Hormuz and about 20% of worldwide LNG supply is currently offline, tightening availability across regions.
- Morgan Stanley says an outage lasting beyond one month would flip the market from a forecast surplus to a deficit, and Qatar’s energy minister warns a restart could take weeks to months.
- EU gas storage sits below 30%, with refill needs estimated near 67 billion cubic meters that could add more than $10 billion to import costs and push the total refill bill toward $40 billion.