Overview
- Retail gasoline has eased from spring peaks to a national average of about $3.92 on Monday, but that is still well above the sub-$3 prices before the Iran war.
- Traders have trimmed crude prices in recent weeks and the contract now trades near its 200‑day moving average around the low $70s per barrel.
- Physical bottlenecks such as rerouting tankers, higher war-risk insurance, port congestion and refiners’ changed crude supplies mean barrels will take weeks to months to flow normally.
- U.S. and global inventories were heavily drawn during the shock and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at its lowest level since 1983, which creates demand to restock that can support prices.
- Analysts say gasoline could drop further toward roughly $3.50 over coming weeks but expect the pace of relief to slow and say a full return to pre-war pump prices is unlikely until next year, with renewed Iranian threats to close the strait and summer driving adding clear downside risks.