Overview
- The national average price hit about $3.94 on Sunday, up more than a dollar since Feb. 28, after strikes tied to the Iran war curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Stanford’s Neale Mahoney models a May peak near $4.36 a gallon and roughly $740 in extra 2026 household fuel spending—almost matching the Tax Foundation’s $748 refund lift.
- IRS data through March 6 show average refunds at $3,676, up $352 from last year so far, with later, more complex returns still to come.
- Oxford Economics estimates consumers will spend $60–$70 billion more on gasoline under plausible price paths, which it says would offset the refund boost and trim growth, with lower- and middle-income households bearing the heaviest burden.
- The administration’s steps include a temporary Jones Act waiver and planned talks between Vice President JD Vance and oil executives, though analysts see limited price relief.