Overview
- U.S. gasoline averaged about $3.93 per gallon at midday March 23, roughly $1 higher than a month earlier, as the Iran conflict disrupted oil flows.
- Oxford Economics estimates a $3.60 full‑year average would add about $60 billion to consumer gasoline spending in 2026, roughly offsetting the refund boost, with each $0.10 adding about $12.3 billion.
- A Stanford analysis outlines a potential May peak near $4.36 a gallon that would raise annual household fuel costs by about $740, nearly matching the Tax Foundation’s $748 average refund increase.
- IRS data through March 6 show average refunds at $3,676, up $352 from a year earlier, with the average likely to rise as more complex returns are processed.
- Lower- and middle-income households face the steepest strain given higher fuel budget shares, and near-term steps such as a temporary Jones Act waiver are expected to shave only a few cents per gallon.