Overview
- Shilling told Business Insider he sees a recession as almost inevitable and expects a sharp market drop by year-end.
- He points to fading spending power with real disposable income up just 0.4% in March and the personal savings rate at 3.6%.
- Energy prices rose 12.5% from a year earlier in March, which he says is squeezing household budgets and could cool consumption.
- He says the housing market is largely frozen as buyers face borrowing costs that remain high.
- He argues stocks look stretched on the Shiller CAPE, price-to-sales, and price-to-book ratios, while broader business investment outside AI has slowed to about 3.9% growth, and Benzinga reports Goldman Sachs recently lifted its US recession odds to 25%.