Overview
- Gartner forecasts chip sales of about $1.32 trillion in 2026, with the jump powered by far higher prices for memory chips rather than more units sold.
- Prices are set to climb steeply this year, with DRAM up roughly 125% and NAND flash up about 234%, and Gartner expects non‑AI demand to stay weak until at least 2028.
- AI is the main pull on supply as Gartner projects 30% of 2026 chip units will be AI parts, and those accelerators and data centers require large amounts of DRAM and flash.
- Industry strain is mounting, with Phison’s CEO warning in a reported interview that some production lines could halt and that shortages could persist for years, though that timeline is less corroborated.
- Supply deals are getting tighter, with reports of prepayments of up to three years, and analysts cited by Bloomberg expect consumer device prices to rise by roughly 6% to 8%, especially in low‑margin gear like budget phones and routers.