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Gartner Sees 'Memflation' Fueling a 2026 Semiconductor Revenue Surge

Analysts tie AI build‑outs to a memory price spike that squeezes non‑AI devices.

Overview

  • Gartner forecasts chip sales of about $1.32 trillion in 2026, with the jump powered by far higher prices for memory chips rather than more units sold.
  • Prices are set to climb steeply this year, with DRAM up roughly 125% and NAND flash up about 234%, and Gartner expects non‑AI demand to stay weak until at least 2028.
  • AI is the main pull on supply as Gartner projects 30% of 2026 chip units will be AI parts, and those accelerators and data centers require large amounts of DRAM and flash.
  • Industry strain is mounting, with Phison’s CEO warning in a reported interview that some production lines could halt and that shortages could persist for years, though that timeline is less corroborated.
  • Supply deals are getting tighter, with reports of prepayments of up to three years, and analysts cited by Bloomberg expect consumer device prices to rise by roughly 6% to 8%, especially in low‑margin gear like budget phones and routers.