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Gartner: PC Shipments to Drop 10.4% in 2026 as Memory Costs Spike, Threatening Sub-$500 PCs by 2028

AI data‑center demand is diverting memory supply from consumer devices.

Overview

  • Gartner projects DRAM and SSD prices to surge about 130% by year‑end, pushing average PC prices roughly 17% higher.
  • The firm expects manufacturers to pass costs through and accept lower unit volumes, with $500–$1,000 systems hit hardest.
  • Entry‑level PCs under $500 are forecast to disappear by 2028 as memory takes a larger share of the bill of materials.
  • Device lifetimes are set to rise, with Gartner estimating a roughly 20% increase for consumers by the end of 2026, which could delay AI PC adoption.
  • Gartner flags Q2 for faster price inflation as DRAM inventories thin, with entry‑level smartphones facing similar pressure that steers buyers to refurbished devices.