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Gao Shanwen, Economist Who Challenged China’s GDP, Dies

His passing removes a high-profile independent voice whose 2024 GDP estimate and blunt social critiques prompted official probes and widespread online tributes.

Overview

  • Chinese media and social posts report Gao Shanwen has died after an illness that outlets and screenshots say was cancer, with coverage noting a one-year treatment and a discrepancy over whether he was 54 or 55 at death.
  • Gao rose through the People’s Bank of China from 1995 and spent decades as a leading market economist, serving as chief economist at Everbright and then Essence/SDIC Securities before leaving the firm in November 2025.
  • He gained international attention in late 2024 when he told an event in Washington that China’s real GDP growth was likely near 2 percent versus the official near-5 percent figure, a statement that later led to a reported investigation and discipline by Chinese authorities.
  • Many market figures and ordinary users mourned him on Chinese social media, and several of his critical speeches and posts were removed from domestic platforms during his public disputes with official narratives.
  • Gao’s work shaped investor and policy debates about China’s growth, so his death could narrow the space for candid public macroeconomic commentary and leave questions about the earlier probe and official confirmation unanswered.