Overview
- Statistics South Africa reported headline inflation at 4% year over year in April after a sharp rise in fuel costs.
- The fuel price index jumped 18.2% from March, which Stats SA said was the steepest monthly increase since the current CPI series began in 2008.
- Some forecasters now see a 25 basis point repo increase to 7% at the May 28 Reserve Bank meeting, which would lift banks’ prime rate to about 10.5%.
- Standard Bank’s Elna Moolman warned that higher fuel costs could spill into broader prices over time and said the central bank may raise rates to prevent those second‑round effects.
- University of Johannesburg’s Daniel Meyer argued the spike is an imported fuel shock, so higher rates may do little to curb prices and could further weaken growth, with households also facing less fuel‑levy relief from June.