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Fuel and Fertiliser Shock Puts Southeast Asia’s Rice Harvest at Risk

Soaring input costs now threaten near-term rice output across Southeast Asia.

Overview

  • Harvest-ready rice is going uncollected across Southeast Asia as diesel and fertiliser prices surge after the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • In Thailand, some growers are leaving mature crops in the field because harvesting costs now exceed the prices they can get for their grain.
  • Farm input bills have doubled or tripled while benchmark Thai 5% broken rice recently hovered below US$400 a ton, squeezing margins and discouraging planting.
  • Analysts flag steep drops, with Thailand’s dry-season output projected down about 19% and the Philippines’ 2026 paddy harvest seen down at least 10%.
  • The UN food agency warns a further 20–30 days of strait closure could curb food availability in late 2026, and says reopening the route is the only real fix.