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FTAs, Production-Linked Incentives and Ports Give India a Clearer Path to $1 Trillion Exports

YES Securities says recent trade deals combined with manufacturing incentives and logistics upgrades could convert global firms' China+1 moves into a sustained export push if India fixes key competitiveness gaps.

Overview

  • A YES Securities report published Friday, June 12, 2026, argues that new-generation free trade agreements with the UAE, Australia, the UK and EFTA, plus talks with the EU and US, provide tariff certainty and wider market access that could expand exports.
  • The brokerage projects electronics as the biggest winner and estimates electronics exports could reach about $233 billion by 2030, driven largely by smartphone and Apple-led supplier networks.
  • Production-Linked Incentive schemes, industrial corridors and port and logistics upgrades are presented as the policy mix that can turn preferential market access into higher factory output and revived private capital spending.
  • YES Securities warns that high logistics costs, infrastructure gaps, complex compliance, expensive power and lower labour productivity remain the main constraints and could blunt gains or widen trade deficits if not addressed.
  • If reforms reduce those bottlenecks, the report says higher export demand could raise capacity use, prompt new investment and help India capture manufacturing relocation tied to the China+1 trend.