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Fresh Israeli Polls Clash on Which Bloc Can Govern

Small parties near the threshold are swinging seat counts across surveys.

Overview

  • A Channel 14 survey puts Likud at 34 seats and shows a 65-seat majority for the right-wing bloc.
  • A Channel 12 poll finds Likud at 27 seats, Bennett 2026 at 20, and an opposition tally of 68 seats that rises to 70 if Arab parties run on a joint list projected at 12 seats.
  • A Lazar Research poll for Maariv shows Likud at 26, Bennett’s party at 20, Yashar at 13, and Democrats at 11, with 50 seats for the current coalition, 60 for the center-left, and 10 for Arab parties.
  • Seat estimates for leading figures diverge sharply across polls, with Likud ranging from 26 to 34 seats and Bennett’s party from 11 to 21.
  • Multiple surveys indicate several parties failing to clear the threshold, including Religious Zionism, Blue and White, the Reservists, and Balad, keeping Arab parties in a potential kingmaker position despite their usual stance outside coalitions.