Overview
- YouGov’s West Midlands MRP released Tuesday projects Reform leading the vote share in 11 of 13 councils, with double‑digit leads in seven and knife‑edge three‑way races in Birmingham and Coventry.
- The Bombe AI model updated Tuesday estimates roughly 1,380 Reform gains and about 700 Green gains, with Labour down around 1,400 seats and many councils likely to finish with no overall control.
- In London, an LSE/JL Partners MRP finds the Greens neck‑and‑neck with Labour in Camden and strongly placed in other inner boroughs, signaling a real risk to long‑standing Labour strongholds.
- Nearly 25,000 candidates are standing across England, including about 4,800 for Reform and almost 4,500 for the Greens, and polls open May 7 from 7am to 10pm with results due from early Friday into Saturday.
- Analysts say deep losses would intensify pressure on Keir Starmer, with one Oxford projection putting potential Labour losses near 1,900 councillors, though final outcomes remain uncertain until counts conclude.