Overview
- All metropolitan regions are in epidemic with indicators still rising, and last week flu accounted for 2.8% of emergency visits and 2.2% of hospitalizations after those visits as the share of flu among registered deaths reached roughly twice the level seen at this time in 2024.
- Short‑term projections assign a 15% chance of a peak in week 51, 70% in week 52 and 12% in week 1, pointing to the highest likelihood in the week of Christmas.
- The model anticipates a further rise in flu‑related emergency visits over the next two weeks followed by a decline in early January, influenced in part by reduced transmission during school holidays, with a post‑holiday rebound not ruled out.
- Researchers caution that the model’s performance varies by season and it currently does not incorporate vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness or detailed subtype circulation.
- Health authorities urge vaccination and basic protective measures, emphasizing risks for older adults, pregnant women, immunocompromised people and those with chronic conditions.