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France’s Elder-Care Needs Surge in Official Forecast as Government Delays ‘Grand Age’ Plan Indefinitely

An official Drees study projects up to 200,000 extra care jobs by 2050 under scenarios that hinge on expanding EHPAD capacity versus prioritizing home support.

Overview

  • Drees estimates France will have about five million more people aged 60 and over by mid-century, reaching roughly 22.9 million seniors with around 738,000 additional people losing autonomy.
  • Between 150,000 and 200,000 additional workers would be required by 2050 to provide basic care to dependent older adults.
  • If current practices for entering EHPADs continue, about 365,000 additional EHPAD places and roughly 202,000 jobs would be needed.
  • If the shift toward home care strengthens, the projected staffing need falls to about 156,000 jobs, with intermediate housing capacity expected to multiply by roughly four to five times by 2050.
  • The minister’s office confirmed the ‘Grand Age’ reform is postponed without a new date after Charlotte Parmentier-Lecocq signaled a return to Parliament, as sector leaders warn of urgency and note fewer than half of the 50,000 hires promised in 2022 have materialized.