Overview
- The Economy Ministry now pegs 2026 growth at 0.9% and inflation at 1.9%.
- The government maintains a 5% of GDP deficit goal for 2026 despite a better-than-expected 2025 shortfall of 5.1%.
- Officials attribute the tweak to an energy shock from the Middle East war that has raised oil prices and added about €4 billion to debt interest.
- The revised outlook has been sent to France’s fiscal watchdog, with a parliamentary alert committee set for April 21 and an updated budget path expected in Brussels on April 22.
- The 0.9% growth view lines up with Banque de France and Insee projections, though the ministry warns that sustained higher oil could further dent output.