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France Inflation Falls to 1.8% in June on Energy Cooling

Lower petroleum prices after a June 17 Middle East protocol drove the decline, with Insee warning inflation could reaccelerate toward December.

Overview

  • Insee’s preliminary estimate, published June 30, shows consumer prices rose 1.8% year‑on‑year in June after 2.4% in May and recorded a small monthly fall, the first since January.
  • The bureau says the slowdown is mainly due to a sharp deceleration in energy prices, especially petroleum products that fell after the June 17 diplomatic protocol in the Middle East.
  • Energy costs remain elevated at about +11.2% year‑on‑year in June, so households only get temporary relief and fuel prices are still well above pre‑crisis levels.
  • Analysts and Insee flag measurement and calendar effects linked to the timing of seasonal sales and note risks from wage rises and delayed pass‑through of energy costs to food and services.
  • Insee expects inflation to pick up again from August and to reach roughly 2.7% by December, leaving the French economy in a fragile low‑growth position that could weaken purchasing power later in 2026.