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Fragile U.S.–Iran Truce Lifts Stocks as Oil Falls, Shipping Still Constrained

Weekend talks in Islamabad could determine whether tankers safely return through the Strait of Hormuz.

Overview

  • Markets rallied after a two-week ceasefire announced Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up about 3.6% for the week and the Nasdaq up 4.7%.
  • Oil logged its steepest weekly slide since 2022, with WTI and Brent dropping below $100 and ending the week down roughly 12% to 15%.
  • Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited as Iran tells ships to coordinate with its authorities and marine insurers flag high risk.
  • U.S. inflation jumped 0.9% in March to 3.3% year over year on energy costs, and consumer sentiment sank to 47.6 as gas prices strained budgets.
  • U.S. and Iranian delegations, led by Vice President JD Vance, head into Pakistan talks as disputes over Lebanon and proposed transit fees keep the ceasefire in doubt.