Fragile U.S.–Iran Cease-Fire Strained by Israeli Strikes and IRGC Controls on Hormuz

Overview

• Following Wednesday’s truce announcement, Israel carried out its largest strikes in Lebanon of the conflict, Lebanese authorities reported 182 to 254 dead, and Hezbollah fired rockets overnight in response.
• Pakistani mediators say the cease-fire covers Lebanon, while Israel and President Trump say it does not, and the United Nations warned that fighting in Lebanon puts the pause at grave risk.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard ordered ships in the Strait of Hormuz to use two coastal routes because of possible mines and said it would coordinate passage during the truce, with Iranian media later reporting navigation was suspended over the Lebanon escalation.
• Trump said U.S. forces will stay in and around Iran until a “real” agreement is implemented, as Vice President J.D. Vance heads to Islamabad for talks where Iran’s 10‑point plan seeks non‑aggression guarantees, sweeping sanctions relief, a U.S. withdrawal, and acceptance of uranium enrichment.
• Despite the pause, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reported injuries and damage from attacks they blamed on Iran, highlighting ongoing risks to Gulf oil, power plants, and daily life for workers at key energy sites.