Overview
- ECMWF maps now concentrate the heaviest rainfall over parts of the eastern Mediterranean, with local totals modeled well above 100 millimetres near west Greece, Aegean islands and Turkey’s southwest coast.
- Warm sea-surface anomalies are flagged as a rainfall amplifier by feeding extra heat and moisture into coastal lows, though they are not identified as the sole trigger of the events.
- Germany is increasingly in line for an Arctic cold-air intrusion in the coming days, with guidance indicating subzero nights that could drop near −10 °C and bursts of snow in places.
- The World Meteorological Organization notes an unusually dynamic global circulation featuring strong ocean–Arctic contrasts that is encouraging blocking highs and large jet-stream waves.
- Ensemble scenarios diverge on how long the cold pattern holds, with outcomes tied to modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, leaving persistence and regional impacts uncertain.