Overview
- Major forecast centers, which updated outlooks this week, now see El Niño—the Pacific warming pattern that shifts global weather—forming between May and July.
- ECMWF’s May run shows central Pacific sea-surface temperatures near 3°C above normal by fall, a level seen only in the strongest events on record.
- Scientists say a strong event could nudge global averages toward or above the 1.5°C mark for a year, raising the odds of record heat.
- In the U.S., a wetter South and more active Eastern Pacific raise flood risk and could push up home insurance costs in states like California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
- Experts caution forecast skill is lower in spring until the ocean and atmosphere lock together, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes would not remove the chance of a damaging landfall.