Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its April outlook, raised the chance of El Niño forming in May–July to about 61 percent.
- Model guidance has tilted toward a large event, with ECMWF ensemble members leaning strong by mid‑summer and U.S. forecasters estimating roughly a 25 percent chance of a very strong El Niño.
- If a strong event develops, researchers say it could help push global temperatures to new records in late 2026 and into 2027.
- India’s monsoon may weaken, as the IMD projects about 8 percent below‑normal rainfall and historical records show most El Niño‑affected monsoons since 1951 ended in deficits.
- In the U.S. Southwest, past strong El Niño years often brought wetter, cooler winters, though spring forecast skill is limited and CPC now uses the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to better account for long‑term ocean warming.