Overview
- Independent forecasters have clustered in the mid‑3% range for the 2027 COLA, with AARP estimating 3.5% and the Senior Citizens League projecting 3.6%, but those figures remain forecasts rather than the official number.
- By law the SSA calculates the COLA as the percentage change in the CPI‑W averaged for July, August and September compared with the same months a year earlier, and the agency will publish the official increase in October.
- Using the SSA’s June 2026 average retired‑worker benefit of $2,084.40, a 3.5% COLA would raise that average by about $72.95 per month to roughly $2,157.35 before deductions.
- Many beneficiaries could see part or all of that headline gain erased if Medicare Part B premiums or other deductions rise when federal officials set those charges this fall.
- Longer term debates over whether CPI‑W captures seniors’ costs, proposals to change COLA rules, and Trustees’ solvency projections frame the policy choices that would matter beyond next year’s percentage.