Overview
- Meteorologists report a fading La Niña and neutral Pacific conditions that raise the chance of El Niño forming by mid‑2026, though the event is not yet certain.
- Observations show an exceptionally warm March 2026 worldwide, with the United States recording its warmest March on record, according to Meteo Media.
- The World Meteorological Organization says 2025 ranked among the three warmest years on record at roughly 1.44°C above pre‑industrial levels, lifting the baseline for any new heat surge.
- Forecast models disagree on strength, with some hinting at a strong or even “Super El Niño” in 2026, and forecasters caution that these projections remain uncertain.
- El Niño typically shifts jet streams and can bring more rain to parts of South America and the southern US, drier conditions to Australia and Indonesia, and higher odds of warmer months in Europe and North Africa, with outcomes for Germany still variable.