Overview
- Forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization report high confidence that El Niño will take hold by mid‑2026 and then intensify.
- NOAA’s multi‑model ensemble now projects central Pacific sea‑surface temperatures near 3.1°C above average late this year, a level that could rival the 1997‑98 and 2015‑16 super events even as final strength remains uncertain.
- Ocean measurements show unusually large heat stored below the equator and recent strong westerly wind bursts pushing it east, giving the developing pattern added momentum and staying power.
- A strong El Niño tends to raise global temperatures and shift rain and storm tracks, with likely effects that include a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and drier conditions in parts of the Caribbean.
- El Niño is a natural Pacific warming that typically peaks toward year‑end, and agencies caution that spring forecasts are less reliable, with NOAA set to update odds and timing in mid‑May.