Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center projects a shift from La Niña to ENSO‑neutral in April, a 55% chance of neutral conditions through May–July, and a 62% chance El Niño will emerge in June–August and persist through late 2026.
- European model guidance reported this week raises the possibility of a strong or even “super El Niño” developing late in 2026, which could elevate global temperatures into 2027, though this remains uncertain.
- Peru’s ENFEN says a coastal Niño is more likely to persist through December with weak magnitude, could reach moderate strength in autumn, and warrants continuation of the coastal Niño alert.
- NOAA cites substantial subsurface ocean heat and an expected weakening of low‑level trade winds as factors increasing El Niño odds, while noting forecast skill is limited at this lead time.
- Scientists outline potential impacts if El Niño consolidates, including heavier rains on Peru and Ecuador’s coasts and Hawaii, shifting heat and drought risks in the U.S. West with wetter winter conditions, and reduced Atlantic hurricane formation alongside higher Pacific cyclone risk.