Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization says rapid warming in the equatorial Pacific makes El Niño conditions likely between May and July 2026, with major shifts in heat and rainfall expected worldwide.
- Recent ECMWF model runs indicate the event could reach “super” strength, with sea‑surface temperatures more than 2°C above average and a peak late 2026 to early 2027.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports ENSO is still in a neutral state now, with the warm phase favored to develop in the autumn of 2026 and the final strength still uncertain.
- Regional outlooks point to heavy rains and likely flooding along Peru and Ecuador’s Pacific coasts, while Colombia and Bolivia’s dry corridor face probable severe drought that threatens water supplies and farms.
- Public‑health officials warn of dangerous heat that can overwhelm the body and strain hospitals, and analysts see risks for crops, food prices, energy demand, hydropower, insurance losses, and shipping.