Overview
- New forecasts from NOAA and Europe’s ECMWF show warming spreading across the equatorial Pacific with several ECMWF scenarios near a 3°C anomaly by fall, a level consistent with a rare “super” El Niño defined at 2°C or more.
- Authorities including the WMO say El Niño is likely to form between May and July, though forecasters stress springtime uncertainty until ocean warming locks in with atmospheric changes.
- A strong El Niño typically weakens Atlantic hurricanes and boosts Eastern Pacific cyclone activity, and outlooks this year favor a wetter southern U.S. with higher heat and drought risk in parts of Asia, Australia and Africa.
- Scientists warn a strong event could drive record global heat, with several experts noting the highest temperature spike may arrive in 2027 as ocean heat released this year lingers in the atmosphere.
- Food, water and energy systems face added strain as drought threatens hydropower and crops in vulnerable regions, and agencies urge early planning on water management, farm support and public‑health protections.