Overview
- Global agencies and model suites on Monday signaled a high likelihood that El Niño will develop between May and July, with several experts flagging the chance of a very strong or even “super” event.
- NOAA estimates roughly a one‑in‑four chance of a very strong phase, while the WMO says models already show rapid Pacific warming and further strengthening if ocean–atmosphere coupling takes hold.
- The India Meteorological Department projects extreme heat in May–June and a below‑normal monsoon near 92% of the long‑term average, as on‑the‑ground temperatures have already neared 47°C in parts of the country.
- A stronger El Niño would likely shift rainfall patterns worldwide, raising drought risk across parts of Asia and Australia and boosting rainfall in sections of the Americas, with scientists warning it could set up record global heat into 2027.
- Forecast confidence remains limited through the spring predictability barrier, yet officials urge preparation, citing sector risks from agriculture to health and evidence that Indian women face disproportionate burdens during droughts and heatwaves.