Overview
- Major forecast centers say El Niño is likely to develop by summer and persist into winter, with some projections allowing for a very strong event.
- Ocean measurements show a vast reservoir of warm water and recent westerly wind bursts pushing heat east, yet forecasters say a sustained event requires trade winds to weaken again.
- Scientists caution that spring is the hardest time to predict strength, noting past years like 2014 and 2017 when early signs faded because the needed wind feedback never took hold.
- Expected effects include hotter global temperatures and shifted rainfall, with drought risk for parts of India, Southeast Asia and Australia and increased flood risk for Peru and the southern United States.
- Experts say El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricanes but does not remove landfall risk, warn of higher high‑tide flooding on U.S. coasts due to sea‑level rise, and point to past events that drove multi‑trillion‑dollar losses as agencies prepare and await June updates.