Overview
- Major centers and models now put the chance of El Niño forming in the May–July window at roughly 60%, with Ciifen citing 61% and Spain’s Aemet reporting similar odds.
- Some outlooks raise the possibility of a very strong event known as a “super El Niño,” though estimates diverge widely from about 15% to more than 60% depending on the source.
- Aemet cautions that it is too soon to link Spain’s summer to El Niño and says any direct influence on Spanish heat is likely small, noting recent very hot summers occurred without it.
- Chile’s central and southern regions could see warmer conditions and short, intense downpours if El Niño develops, increasing flood and landslide risks along the Andes and affecting travel and farming plans.
- El Niño arises from abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific that shifts winds and rainfall patterns, and a “super” event is typically defined by Niño 3.4 sea-surface anomalies above about +2 °C, last approached in 2015–2016.