Overview
- Global agencies including the WMO and NOAA report rising Pacific sea temperatures and broad model agreement that El Niño will likely start between May and July.
- NOAA places roughly a one‑in‑four chance on a very strong or “super” event later this year, though experts caution that spring forecasts are less certain because of the seasonal predictability barrier.
- India is already in extreme heat, with several locations near 47°C and Akola hitting 46.9°C on April 26, as the IMD flags a hotter May–June and a below‑normal monsoon through September.
- Expected patterns point to hotter, drier conditions across parts of Asia and Australia, shifts in rainfall across New Zealand, and increased rain in parts of the Americas, with impacts varying by region.
- Analyses highlight disproportionate harm to women in India during droughts and heatwaves, including lost income, heavier care work, and health risks, prompting calls for targeted cash aid, water access, cooling centers, and tailored early warnings.