Overview
- Global agencies report high confidence that El Niño will form by mid‑year, with the World Meteorological Organization expecting onset followed by intensification.
- Recent forecasts point to extreme warmth in the central Pacific, including NOAA’s multi‑model ensemble near a +3.1°C peak in November with several models above +3°C.
- Ocean measurements show an unusual reservoir of heat beneath the equator, with parts of the subsurface more than 7°C above normal that can sustain surface warming.
- Scientists say a strong El Niño would likely shift rain and storm tracks, reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, and boost the chance of record‑hot global temperatures.
- Forecasters caution that spring limits predictability, so confidence in timing and strength should rise after late‑spring observations, with a NOAA update due May 14.