Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now places the odds of El Niño forming by mid‑2026 at roughly 80% and projects persistence through the 2026–27 northern winter.
- Several major model ensembles show a substantive chance the episode could reach very strong or 'super' levels (around 2°C or more above average in key Pacific zones), with NOAA estimating about a one‑in‑three probability.
- Scientists have identified a large subsurface warm pool and a strong Kelvin wave moving east in the tropical Pacific, a pattern that can push heat to the surface and precondition powerful El Niño events.
- Forecasters and national agencies warn of likely impacts that include longer, stronger heatwaves over India, an unusually warm and partly drier winter across parts of Australia, elevated drought risk in southern Africa, and more frequent high‑tide coastal flooding on US shores.
- Key uncertainty remains because the event’s peak strength depends on how low‑level trade winds and atmosphere–ocean feedbacks evolve this spring and summer, so authorities are urging early planning for water, food and coastal flood risks.