Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of El Niño forming at about 61–62% for May–July or June–August, with some forecasts topping 90% by September.
- Model suites from Europe, the U.S., and Spain flag high odds of a strong event by late 2026, with several analyses estimating a 20–25% chance of a very strong “super” outcome.
- National agencies and researchers push back on “super El Niño” headlines, citing spring forecast limits and stressing that ocean warming must couple with the atmosphere before impacts lock in.
- Timing matters for hurricanes, as Fox Weather’s analysis finds an earlier El Niño would raise wind shear that tends to suppress Atlantic and Gulf storms while a later start leaves a window for Gulf development.
- Potential effects include a drier tilt for parts of Australia, higher odds of extreme summer heat in Spain and southern Europe, and a greater chance of record global warmth into 2027 if the event turns strong.