Overview
- NOAA’s May outlook points to elevated odds that El Niño will form by early summer and could build later in 2026, with a clearer assessment expected in the mid-June update.
- Ocean data show an unusually large pool of warm water under the eastern equatorial Pacific, and April wind reversals sent a downwelling Kelvin wave east that has spiked surface warming off South America.
- Scientists say the atmosphere has not yet locked into the needed loop where warm water weakens trade winds and triggers repeat eastward wind bursts, so spring forecasts still range from weak to strong outcomes.
- If the event strengthens, risks include drought in the Amazon and parts of Southeast Asia, fires in Indonesia, floods in Peru, wetter conditions in parts of California and southern South America, fewer Atlantic hurricanes, and more storms in the eastern Pacific, with India’s monsoon often weaker in strong years.
- Media outlets have highlighted model runs hinting at a potential “super” El Niño, yet researchers note past near-misses in 2014 and 2017 and advise early, risk-based planning for water, crops, and public health while watching for renewed eastward wind bursts.