Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept a La Niña Advisory but projects a transition to ENSO‑neutral during February–April, with neutral likely through summer and a 50–60% chance of El Niño developing by late summer into fall.
- Recent observations show unusually strong equatorial westerly wind bursts and downwelling Kelvin waves, with subsurface waters in early February more than 3°C above average at 100–150 meters, supporting a faster shift toward warming.
- Model guidance has tilted toward El Niño later in 2026, with Australia’s BOM model indicating 57% odds by May and near‑certain odds by mid‑winter, international multi‑model surveys near 60–70%, and Japan’s weather agency near 60% by summer.
- NOAA has not issued an El Niño Watch, citing low forecast skill through spring and considerable spread among outcomes even as odds increase.
- If El Niño establishes, Australia faces a higher likelihood of below‑average winter and spring rainfall with hotter days and elevated fire danger, and Atlantic hurricane activity would typically be suppressed by increased upper‑level wind shear, though very warm Atlantic waters could counter some effects.