Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and other agencies now say El Niño is very likely to form by mid‑2026 with an about 82% chance of onset between May and July and a roughly 96% probability of persisting into December–February.
- Several model ensembles show a material one‑in‑three chance of central and eastern Pacific sea surface anomalies reaching or exceeding about 2°C later this year, a level scientists call a 'super' El Niño.
- Ocean observations show a large subsurface warm pool and bursts of westerly winds that can rapidly put heat at the surface and so help trigger a strong event, but those winds remain hard to predict and will influence the final peak.
- A strong El Niño would likely weaken monsoon rains in India, raise risks of severe heatwaves, crop and water stress, and bring heavier rains and flood risk to parts of the United States, Peru and the Pacific, while coral reefs would face more bleaching.
- Forecasters stress uncertainty because of the spring predictability barrier and short observational records, so officials and communities should watch low‑level wind trends, ocean coupling and model updates as the peak season approaches.