Overview
- AccuWeather experts and other researchers said Monday that Tampa, Miami and southern New England have gone unusually long without direct landfalls and face elevated risk as the 2026 season nears.
- Tampa has not taken a direct hit since 1921, despite a typical return interval of about 10 years, and Hurricane Milton’s near miss in 2024 underscored how storm surge could swamp the low-lying metro.
- Miami last saw a direct hit in 2005, far beyond its historical six-to-eight-year return interval, and researchers say the city and Florida’s east coast have been eerily quiet since 2004.
- Southern New England’s last direct landfall was Hurricane Bob in 1991, and an AccuWeather scenario based on the 1938 storm estimated about $440 billion in damage if a similar hurricane struck today.
- Colorado State University’s outlook puts the chance of a named storm passing within 50 miles of Florida at 74% this season, with a 21% chance for a major hurricane, which signals a real need for early planning and clear evacuation know-how.